Friday 3 February 2012

UK back into slump

Since my previous post, the UK M4 bank lending figures in the quarter to end December have finally come in: negative 6.7% annualised, following on from negative 8.7% ending September.

Since the start of the credit crunch in 2007, UK M4 has done this:

That's 5 negative quarters out of the last 7 - the five lowest (and the only five negatives) since 1963.

This thing isn't over, and the air of normality and control is, I fear, fake.

INVESTMENT DISCLOSURE: None. Still in cash (and index-linked National Savings Certificates), and missing all those day-trading opportunities.

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dearieme said...

We really should jail Brown and hang Blair.

Sackerson said...

After a fair trial. And remember the monetary inflation took off in the 70s and then again in the 80s. Will it be like digging up Oliver Cromwell and hanging his remains?

Perhaps that's an argument for only having young politicians, so they can fear living long enough to meet their retribution.

Paddington said...

The purpose of a trial is to establish guilt, isn't it? I don't see that there is any question.

Dave the Dog said...

Yeah, been watching this data set for some time. I just wonder how long the B of E, the Gov and the Bankers can keep all the plates spinning.

My employer (big US based publisher) has done well through the downturn - good profits in 2009, 2010 - bit of cost cutting kept the game going through 2011 . . . now we have been warned that sales are flat and going down and we'll have no bonus or pay rise this year.

I think the make believe and fairy dust will run short this autumn . . . just my guess!

Thanks for your posts, I follow them with interest.


Sackerson said...

Thanks for the boost, Dave.